I like the Orioles in game #1 despite what seems like an advantage for the Royals on the mound with James Shields. Shields had a 4.58 EAR over the last 3 years at Camden Yards and Adam Jones and Nick Markakis have very good numbers off of him. Chris Tillman of the Orioles continues to fly under the radar as he posted a 2.33 ERA over his last 14 starts pots All Star break including a complete game shutout vs. the Royals on the road. The Royals need to play small ball to win this game, but the Orioles team is very well coached and are 5th in fewest allowed steals. Tillman has only allowed 2 stolen bases in the last 2 years spanning over 60 starts. Baltimore's offense was ranked 6th in OPS vs. RHP vs. the Royals who were ranked 18th and in the post season the Orioles have a .810 OPS compared with the Roayls .611. Orioles should take this game at home and have the better coached team in my opinion.
WASHINGTON ST +17 4.4* NCAAF POD
I will go with Washington State on the road again... If you follow me you know I had them at +425 to upset Utah on the road a few weeks ago. Stanford is just 8-20 ATS following a SU loss and I don't think Notre Dame is that good so it was a very bad loss.
Stanford is not a team that is going to blow anyone out especially this year. Outside of Ty Montgomery this offense does not have any scary weapons and they have been unable to put up points against FBS opponents. Washington State poses a big threat and have played well at Stanford in years past. Washington State is 14th in yards per play and Stanford's defense that has dominated has only faced 1 team ranked in the top 50 and that was Notre Dame at #47. Washington State's offense is really tough to prepare for even though all they do is pass. Washington State is a bad match up for Stanford a team that likes to impose it's physical skill on you. They are built to stop the run and get to the QB much like Utah. Washington State's offense is averaging 38 ppg and 579.5 yards which is pretty impressive considering they have faced defenses that average 29.4 ppg allowed and 474 yards.
Washington State will face a Stanford offense that just does not have the same weapons or the same running game as in years past. For one they are ranked 83rd in yards per play - Utah is ranked in the 90s. I bring that up because this game continues to remind me of that match up that Washington State stole at the end as a double digit road dog. Their QB Keith Hogan seems to have regressed and is not 100% for this game while Stanford has to think they can flex their muscles with the running game and will want to dominate time of possession. It will lead to some three and outs in my opinion or for nothing less shorten the game and possessions making the 17 points all the more attractive.
Connor Halliday will have a decent game against a tough Stanford defense he's completing 67.8% of his passes for 26 TDs and 7 INT's, and only being sacked 3.46% of drop backs which is impressive when you know what Washington State does. Their biggest issue has been the turnovers -7 margin on the season but it's not been a strength of Stanford to force turnovers and they too are -4 in turnover margin. The red zone offense and defense will be the difference in this game and Stanford has struggled converting <50% of their opportunities in the green zone into TD's while Washington State's defense has held it's own allowing 52%. Should be an interesting battle and we are getting more points than we should.
